US has agreed to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, it has
been declared at the ongoing historic Afghan peace talks in Doha. This is the
moment of truth for Pakistan as it plays its role for peace not only in
Afghanistan but also in the region. Islamabad played a crucial role in
advancing mediation efforts between the Taliban and Washington. Pakistan
positioned itself as a powerful bargaining force in the future of Afghanistan.
Pakistan's current Prime Minister Imran Khan for long has asked for
negotiations with Afghan Taliban. Today, the West has acknowledged the
perspective of Pakistan.
With the help of Pakistan, both parties have come to the
agreement that the US will withdraw troops from Afghanistan. The United States
and its allies will withdraw all their forces from Afghanistan within 14 months
if the Taliban abide by an agreement due to be signed in Doha on Saturday,
Washington and Kabul said in a joint statement.
US aims to withdraw all forces ‘within 14 months’:
US-Afghan declaration
After an initial reduction of troops to 8,600 within 135
days of Saturday’s signing, the US and its partners “will complete the
withdrawal of their remaining forces from Afghanistan within 14 months… and
will withdraw all their forces from remaining bases”, the declaration stated.
Pakistan’s role
As the talks between Washington and the Taliban have
increased the possibility of a settlement in the Afghan conflict, behind the
scenes, Pakistan, a state which has crucial ethnic and cultural ties with
Afghanistan, has played a critical role in bringing the Taliban to the table.
“Pakistan has been very consistent about the Taliban. Right
after September 11, Pakistan kept telling Americans that there is a difference
between the Taliban and Al Qaeda. We must talk to the Taliban,” said Kamal
Alam, a military analyst.
Before the September 11 attacks, the Taliban was the ruling
power in Kabul. In order to go after Al Qaeda and its leader Osama bin Laden,
who was based in Afghanistan, and harbored by the Taliban leadership,
Washington went to war with Kabul in 2001.
The US military eventually overthrew the Taliban-led
government, replacing it with a pro-Western alliance of political powers, which
have not been on friendly terms with Pakistan.
“In 2001, there was the Bonn conference, which brought Hamid
Karzai to the government, even then, they wanted the Taliban talks to happen.
When Karzai was the president, he wanted to talk to the Taliban, but the
Americans did not allow him,” Alam told TRT World.
But nearly two decades later, Washington appears to be
bogged down in a civil war in Afghanistan, where the Taliban controls much of
the country. In the face of a growing Taliban reality on the ground, US
President Donald Trump currently seeks a quick exit from the conflict.
Now, Washington appears to recognize the validity of
Pakistan’s Taliban argument, getting closer to a deal with the group’s leaders.
Pakistan has long said that the Taliban is different from
international terrorism and the group should be part of the Afghan dialogue,
according to Alam.
“Americans have finally agreed to this. Not because
Americans like the Taliban, but because they are stuck after 19 years of
failure,” Alam underlined.
After a disputed election, the two contenders – the
incumbent Ashraf Ghani and Dr Abdullah Abdullah, an influential Tajik-origin
politician – are jostling for power, both claiming the Afghan presidency.
“After all these strategic failures, Americans are saying,
‘Right, let’s talk to the Taliban.’ And Pakistan is bringing the Taliban to the
table in Doha [the capital of Qatar, where the talks have been held],” Alam
said.
Read more: PM Khan arrives in Qatar ahead of US-Taliban Deal
How Pakistan became the main actor in the Taliban talks
Alam definitely thinks that Pakistan is “the main actor” in
the ongoing Taliban talks because “key people” participating in the
negotiations are “under the influence of Pakistan”.
Some of the exiled Taliban leaders have allegedly lived in
Pakistan since the US occupation of Afghanistan. In the wake of the Taliban
talks, Pakistan quietly released Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, one of the
co-founders of the Taliban, who joined the Doha talks right after his exit from
a Karachi prison.
While Pakistan has much more influence over the Taliban than
any other regional states, Iran and Russia also support the group, Azam says.
As a result, Pakistan wants to make sure that if the Taliban
deal comes into force and the Americans leave Afghanistan, Washington does not
have to drop all its problems on Pakistan’s door, according to Alam.
“That’s what happened in 1989” after the Soviets departed
Afghanistan in defeat and Pakistanis do not want to have another repeat of
history, Alam says.
“Pakistanis have done their job and now the job is an Afghan
job, which is the intra-Afghan dialogue. The Taliban needs to sit with Ashraf
Ghani or Dr. Abdullah. Now it’s up to the Afghans. Pakistan can not do anymore,”
Alam said.
The supposed agreement will create a political mechanism in
which the US military will withdraw from Afghanistan in exchange for the
Taliban promise that the group will not harbor any terrorist organization which
aims to attack the West.
As the US military begins withdrawing from Afghanistan, the
intra-Afghan talks will be launched to address the country’s long conflict
between the Taliban and Kabul, the deal proposes.
What’s actually happening on the ground?
While the Taliban and the US negotiate a deal to end their
respective hostilities, the situation on the ground has not improved much.
“This is just for Trump to declare a victory and say that ‘I
ended the Afghan war. There has been a peace deal’,” Alam said.
“[But] the situation on the ground is very bad. The Taliban
will continue to fight. Probably they want the whole country. And Ashraf Ghani
and all other politicians want to remain in power.”
If the Taliban takes over the whole country, it might also
have an impact on Pakistan.
“I don’t think it’s in Pakistan’s interest for the Taliban
to rule the whole country,” Alam added, citing different factors from changing
times from the 1990s to 2010s, to the rise of international terrorism, economic
sanctions, the relationship with Iran and Pakistan’s worsening relations with
India.
Afghanistan: Stage set for landmark US, Taliban deal
The stage is set in Qatar’s capital for a landmark peace
deal between the U.S. and the Taliban that could end the U.S.’ longest war.
The Sheraton Hotel in Doha is teeming with foreign diplomats
and dignitaries invited to witness the historic signing by U.S. Secretary of
State Mike Pompeo and Taliban co-founder and deputy chief Mullah Abdul Ghani
Baradar on Saturday.
The ceremony was scheduled for 2 p.m. local time (4 p.m
Pakistan time).
Read more: Taliban Deal: Credit Zalmay Khalilzad &
Mullah Baradar
GVS News Desk with inputs from AFP and TRT.
